Pending Home Sales Rise: What It Means for Mortgage Rates, Buyers, and the Housing Market in 2026

When a home goes under contract, it enters what’s known as pending status—the period between contract signing and the final closing, which often occurs several weeks later. While a sale isn’t officially complete during this phase, the vast majority of pending transactions do ultimately close. Because of that, pending home sales are widely considered one of the most reliable forward-looking indicators of future housing market activity.

Why Pending Home Sales Matter More Than Closed Sales

Closed home sales reflect decisions made months earlier, often under very different mortgage rate and affordability conditions. Pending sales, on the other hand, reflect current buyer behavior—how today’s buyers are reacting to interest rates, home prices, and economic conditions right now. That’s why economists, lenders, and real estate professionals pay close attention to monthly pending sales data when evaluating where the market is headed.

The National Association of Realtors publishes its Pending Home Sales Report every month to track this activity. The report provides insight into buyer demand, affordability trends, and whether housing momentum is strengthening or slowing.

Latest Data Shows Buyers Are Returning

According to the most recent report, pending home sales rose 3.3% month-over-month in November and were 2.6% higher than the same time last year. While these numbers may seem modest at first glance, they represent a meaningful shift in buyer sentiment—especially after a prolonged period of elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure.

This increase suggests that more buyers are actively entering contracts again, signaling confidence that financing conditions are becoming more manageable.

What’s Driving the Increase in Buyer Activity?

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, pointed to improving affordability as a major driver behind the rebound:

“Home buyer momentum is building. The data shows the strongest performance of the year after accounting for seasonal factors, and the best performance in nearly three years, dating back to February 2023.”

Two major forces are helping buyers re-enter the market:

1. Lower mortgage rates compared to recent highs, which directly improve monthly affordability.

2. Wage growth continuing to outpace home price appreciation in many markets, allowing buyers to regain some purchasing power.

Together, these trends are encouraging buyers who had previously paused their plans to begin testing the market again.

What Rising Pending Sales Mean for Mortgage Rates and Competition

Historically, increases in pending home sales often translate into higher closed sales volumes in the following months. If this trend continues, buyers may face:

• Increased competition for well-priced homes

• Faster listing turnover

• Less negotiating leverage as demand strengthens

For mortgage borrowers, timing matters. Buyers who act earlier may face less competition, while homeowners considering refinancing or cash-out strategies may benefit from monitoring rate movements closely as demand builds.

What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners in Today’s Market

For buyers, rising pending sales can be a sign that waiting too long could mean higher prices or fewer options. For homeowners, improving market conditions may open opportunities to refinance, consolidate debt, or tap home equity as values stabilize.

Understanding where the market is headed—not just where it’s been—can make a meaningful difference when planning your next move.